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Entrada at the crossroads Analysys: Second in a series By Fran Sage Special to the Avalanche At the Feb. 19 hearing in Alpine, Brian Swindell and his HDR consulting team will present where they are in the La Entrada al Pacifico feasibility study and where they will go next. La Entrada is a proposed trade corridor linking the west coast of Mexico (Topolobampo) with the Odessa-Midland metro area. The route would enter the United States at Presidio's point of entry and continue through the Alpine area. The consultants are: € At the point where they will recommend whether the four-lane La Entrada al Pacifico looks viable and the remainder of the study would work out the details on that assumption € Or at the point where they have determined the four-lane route is not feasible and the remainder of the study would focus on local area safety and mobility issues. While some number-crunching remains to be done, the recommendation will be ready at the upcoming meeting. The decision, however, will not be firm until public responses have been heard and any revisions made in light of that response have been completed. The consulting team members have gathered enough data to feel confident in their method and statistical model projecting the freight diversion growth through the port of Presidio. Citizens at four public meetings, including the Feb. 19 meeting in Alpine, will be elated or upset or possibly, in some cases, indifferent. Most in the tri-city area of Alpine, Fort Davis and Marfa hope the results of the study indicate that minimal freight traffic will be coming our way, and that the need to plan for a continuing threat from significantly increased truck traffic will fade away. One caution, however: With the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) functioning, we can expect growth even if the Mexican route does not happen. La Entrada website, www.dot.state.tx.us/services/transportation_planning_and_programming/la_entrada/default.htm, has the consulting company's executive summary, full report, list of sources, discussion of methodology and conclusions, though the recommendation on where to go from here will not be available until the meeting. Note that the report is primarily a statistical study, though some other factors have been taken into account. The Freight Forecast Results are presented for three possible results: € A no-build scenario with no significant highway improvements to the LEAP corridor on either the U.S. or Mexican side € Completion of Mexican port and highway prior to 2020 € Completion of Mexican port and highway after 2030. The study's projected limit is 2030. Below is a table illustrating the number of trucks for each scenario: Comparison of anticipated freight through presidio Average annual daily truck traffic Scenario Description 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Baseline Internal Mexico growth 44 60 82 112 152 Prior to 2020 All necessary Mexico infrastructure completed; prior to the year 2020; diversion from other ports of entry; internal Mexico growth 47 125 195 456 739 After 2030 Diversion from other ports of entry; internal Mexico growth; Mexican route not completed by 2030 47 125 174 243 338 Because traffic forecasts have an element of uncertainty, the projections could overestimate or underestimate future traffic within the timeframe. Therefore, a threshold table will serve as a safeguard; that is, no action would be taken unless future activity indicates that the threshold would soon be reached. The threshold discussion will be general with a closer look later when needed. The table will show varying levels of congestion. Before going further in our discussion, we need to remind ourselves that what led to this study in the first place was the growing belief that United States ports of entry would reach capacity and that Mexican ports would be developed to gain the trade currently passing into the United States. The NAFTA agreement would allow traffic to flow in from Mexico at various border ports of entry. The team looked first at possible diversion of Asian goods from the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach in California. Judgments were made as to how much of that trade might come to the Port of Topolobampo, assuming that the necessary work had been completed at the port. That is a major assumption and is dependent on: € Expansion of the port facilities (including container terminals) and the dredging of the port to accommodate larger container vessels € Improvements to the Mexican highway between Topolobampo and Chihuahua City including through Copper Canyon. But the team needed to look at other variables such as the Lazaro Cárdenas port further down Mexico's west coast, currently being expanded with a new terminal and port facilities and connections to a rail route across Mexico and into Texas at Laredo. Other variables include the potential for the Puerto Colonet on the Pacific coast of Baja California being developed. It would be a huge port that could handle sizeable amounts of trade currently going to Los Angeles and Long Beach. The port at Manzanilla much further down the Mexican west coast was also considered. The team also assessed the Texas Gulf Coast ports and other ports of entry into Texas, looking at how much traffic would be diverted. In terms of Mexican freight growth, the team assessed the overall economic growth in Mexico and the impact of this growth on freight destined to the United States. In addition, recent trends for maquiladoras were considered. I recommend looking at the executive summary for discussion of these efforts. Next week, I will discuss other items for discussion at the Feb. 19 Alpine meeting including safety and mobility improvement and alternative routes. The public meetings are scheduled as follows: Alpine: 6 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 19, Sul Ross State University, Espino Conference Room Presidio: 6 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 20, Presidio High School 1000 E. FM 170 Midland: 6 p.m. Monday, Feb. 25, Center for Energy and Economic Development (CEED) at University of Texas at the Permian Basin Fort Stockton: 6 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 26, Fort Stockton High School, 1200 W. 17th St. All these articles when finished will be posted to the Big Bend Regional Sierra Club website at http://texas.sierraclub.org/bigbend/ and to the Stewards of the Big Bend website at www.stopthetrucks.org. Fort Davis honored, out-of-towner selling: Seguin man will sell to whoever meets his demands mikeperry@alpineavalanche.com National Trust honors Fort Davis; ceremony Saturday Avalanche staff Patterson puts off Christmas proposal Special to the Avalanche Analysys: Second in a series Avalanche staff mikeperry@alpineavalanche.com Highlights of the National Park Service's proposal € Facilities that are currently functional and in at least occasional use include an antenna system on the south peak, a rugged service road to the antenna site and several roads entering the property from Terlingua Ranch. |
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